SeaIntel Sunday Spotlight

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Week 34Issue 326
In this issue: Asia-Europe: 12% capacity growth in 2017-Q4
The Asia-Europe trade is expected to see capacity growing by 12% in 2017-Q4, which will most likely push the carriers to blank a considerable amount of sailings, if they wish to maintain a balance between supply and demand.
Asia-Europe: 23.2% capacity growth 2016-2019
Phase-in of the new large vessels into Asia-Europe will increase capacity significantly, unless the number of services is reduced. 2017-2H to 2018-2H will see 11.5% capacity injection. The expectation is for each alliance to close one service.
Large difference in strategic options
The fleet composition varies significantly across the main global carriers, and this leads to different strategic options – and imperatives – going forward.
Service changes Hapag Lloyd and MSC to replace the BLX service with the ECX service
Wan Hai and Simatech launch new Pakistan-MEA service
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Week 33Issue 325
In this issue: 2017: Record high global imbalance
Global demand continues to show steady growth, but the global imbalance in container flows is on track to a new record.
Number of port calls on Transpacific
While Oakland, Shanghai and Busan have the highest number of port calls on Asia-USWC, the Asia-USEC trade lane shows a more balanced picture. Port Klang and the Japanese ports lost a high degree of connections in these trade lanes.
Schedule reliability: Niche vs Top 16
Niche carriers have both outperformed and vastly underperformed compared to the top 16 carriers, with a high degree of volatility in schedule reliability across niche carriers. If on-time performance is a priority, niche carriers offer better rewards, but with higher risks.
Service changes Changes to port rotation on the Aloha Express
Seaboard Marine launches a new service
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Week 32Issue 324
In this issue: Orderbook force market share focus
The differences in orderbook across the main carriers will drive a competitive dynamic wherein especially the Ocean Alliance will be forced to target increased market share.
Service integrity – use of blank sailings
In the first two quarters of 2017 service integrity improved significantly in Asia-Europe and Transpacific as blank sailings decreased significantly.
Global Schedule Reliability in 2017-Q2
Global schedule reliability improved by 2.3 percentage points Q/Q in 2017-Q2, but reliability is still down more than 10 percentage points Y/Y from 2016-Q2, and Wan Hai had the highest on-time performance of 70.7% in 2017-Q2, while all top 18 carriers saw negative Y/Y changes in schedule reliability.
Service changes CMA CGM and Maersk Line re-launch the WAX2/FEW5 service
CMA CGM launches direct service from West MED to the Black Sea
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Week 31Issue 323
In this issue: Asia-N.Eur. revenue up by 1.2-1.7bn USD
Comparing 2017 to 2015, which is a more realistic benchmark than 2016, carriers on Asia-North Europe stand to gain 1.2-1.7bn USD in higher rate levels for full year 2017 versus 2015.
YTD USEC container handling volumes
The throughput of the eight major USEC container ports increased considerably by 10.2% in 2017-1H, driven by strong imports of laden containers. Meanwhile, the laden inbound/outbound balance deteriorated from an increase in empties.
IMF July update: Good news for shipping
The IMF has published their July update to the latest World Economic Outlook report, confirming strong signs of recovery for many of the major economies. This is good news for container shipping in general, and the Asia-Europe trade in particular.
Service changes Changes in port rotation on CMA CGM’s “New NEMO” service
MSC to launch a new Asia-SAF-ISC service
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Week 30Issue 322
In this issue: Mega-vessels: 35% of Asia-North Europe
Currently, the new generation of ultra-large container vessels account for 35% of the capacity in the Asia-North Europe trade. By 2018 this can rise to 61% of the total capacity.
YTD USWC container handling volumes
USWC container handling volumes increased by 7.6% in 2017-1H, the strongest growth since 2010. Laden imports grew slightly less at 6.5%, with PNW ports clearly outperforming PSW ports. Empty handling grew 14.4%, likely driven by alliance launch repositioning.
How do employees rate carriers?
The service Glassdoor offers an overview on how employees rate their own companies. Carriers were ranked poorly on career opportunities and senior management, while salary was a strong point.
Service changes Capacity injection on the Mediterranean-US East Coast trade lane
CMA CGM, Marfret, and Seatrade offer combined Europe-Australasia Service
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Week 29Issue 321
In this issue: Maersk cyber-attack: Reliability impact
Schedule reliability of the Maersk operated vessels was impacted in the shortterm, but we see the schedule reliability return to within normal operational fluctuations within the a few days.
Mid-size niche carriers grow 12%
The mid-sized niche carriers continue their rapid fleet expansion, significantly outgrowing market demand growth in the first six months of 2017.
Vessel ages in alliance trades
Vessels deployed on the Asia-NEUR trade lane are on average significantly younger, while those on MED-USEC are much older.
Service changes Capacity injection on the Asia-US East Coast trade lane
Capacity injection on the Europe-Oceania trade lane
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Week 27Issue 319
In this issue: Maersk cyber-attack: Operational impact
Following the Maersk cyber-attack, Maersk-operated vessels have seen a slowdown in average sailing speed, but not to a level largely outside the normal operational fluctuations. MSC, Safmarine, Hamburg Süd, HMM and CMA CGM have the greatest exposure to Maersk-operated deep-sea vessels.
44% of lines indicate low cyber-security
In the wake of the cyber-attack on Maersk we have revisited the indications of cyber security awareness amongst the top-50 carriers, a terminal has a server exposed online which with certainty can be taken
New alliances and schedule reliability
The new alliances record high schedule reliability. CKYE suffered a significant drop in reliability during the transition from the old to the new alliance networks, whereas 2M saw an increase in their on-time performance in the same period.
Service changes Change in port rotation on Hapag Lloyd’s Asia-South America East Coast (ASE2) service
CMA launches a new service
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Week 26Issue 318
In this issue: Container vessel scrapping trends
While larger and younger container vessels have increasingly been scrapped since 2000, the 2016-2017 period has seen unprecedented levels of scrapping, with exceptionally young vessels being scrapped. 2017 is likely to see continued high levels of scrapping.
Hapag-Lloyd lost efficiency from CSAV
With the Hapag Lloyd merger with UASC going ahead, the German carrier is already announcing staff reductions in order to retain efficiencies. However, data shows that the CSAV merger caused 11% efficiency loss which has not been regained.
Capacity growth in ATL and non-alliance trades
Mediterranean-USEC has seen massive injection of capacity, and will continue to see injection in 2017-Q3. Asia-ISC is projected to slow down the significant capacity injection seen in recent years.
Service changes Carriers to revise the port rotation of EPIC/EPIC2/IOS service
2M carriers to revise the port rotation of AE6-TP6/Lion-Pearl service
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Week 25Issue 317
In this issue: Fuel prices dominate rate formation
Despite the fact that fuel prices have become a smaller part of the total cost picture, the fuel price level continues to dominate rate formation. The transfer mechanism for fuel to freight rates will give carriers a net positive contribution of 300M USD in 2017-Q2.
Reported piracy incidents since 2004
There was a sharp increase in piracy incidents from 2008 to 2011 driven by an increase in piracy in the Gulf of Aden and East Africa (including Somalia) during this period. Piracy incidents have been declining in recent years, and 2017 looks to extend this pattern.
Y/Y Capacity growth in E/W trades
Asia-North Europe, Asia-USEC and Asia-USWC are projected to see Y/Y capacity growth in 2017-Q3, while Asia-Mediterranean is projected to see a Y/Y decrease in 2017-Q3.
Service changes CMA CGM launches MED-West Africa service
CMA/HMM/KMTC/SCI/Pendulum Express Lines launch Asia-ISC service
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Week 24Issue 316
In this issue: Weaker start to 2017 than estimated
Revisions of data from Container Trade Statistics reduce global growth estimates for the beginning of 2017 significantly, and backhauls are a stronger driver of growth than head-hauls.
Average vessel size in non-alliance trades
All trade lanes show a significant increase in average vessel size, though balanced by the carriers with the closure of services to keep over-capacity at reasonable levels.
Service changes 2M add Cristobal to TP16/Emerald service
CMA/APL/COSCO launches a ISC-MED service
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Week 23Issue 315
In this issue: Suez wins back south of Africa sailings
Higher oil prices mean that sailing south of Africa is no longer economically viable, and the USEC-Asia sailings have reverted to Suez. Panama is still the preferred USEC-Asia routing option.
Average vessel size per alliance
The Asia-Europe trade shows an upward trend in average vessel size, with 2M leading this increase. While Asia-USEC is impacted by the Panama Canal, the Asia-USWC trade lane did not show any particular vessel size patterns.
Liner connections breed liner connections
Countries which are already well connected tend to receive even more liner shipping connections, whereas poorly connected countries are losing out.
Service changes OOCL and Yang Ming to launch new Intra-SEA service
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